The revenue for ALG-009 is expected to reach an annual total of $6 mn by 2037 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
ALG-009 Overview
ALG-055009 is under development for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). The drug candidate act by targeting thyroid hormone receptor beta (THR-beta). It is administered orally.
Aligos Therapeutics Overview
Aligos Therapeutics, Inc (Aligos) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that develops products for the treatment of viral infections and liver diseases. The company product pipeline includes ALG-125755 and ALG-000184 for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and ALG-097558 for covid 19. Aligos also provide ALG-055009 for Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH). Its partners include Merck, Luxna Biotech, KU Leuven, AM Chemicals and Emory University. It operates in the US, Belgium, China and Australia. Aligos is headquartered in South San Francisco, California, the United States.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$13.9 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), compared to a revenue of US$4.4 million in FY2021. The operating loss of the company was US$97.6 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$128.3 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was US$96.1 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$128.3 million in FY2021. The company reported revenues of US$6.9 million for the second quarter ended June 2023, compared to a revenue of US$2.7 million the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of ALG-009’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.