The revenue for RL-007 is expected to reach an annual total of $101 mn by 2038 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
RL-007 Overview
RL-007 is under development for the treatment of cognitive impairment associated with schizophrenia (CIAS) and diabetic neuropathic pain. The drug candidate is administered through oral route. It acts by targeting the cholinergic, NMDA and GABA type B receptor systems.
Atai Life Sciences Overview
Atai Life Sciences (ALS) is a biotechnology company that develops innovative treatments for addressing depression, anxiety, addiction, other unmet medical needs and mental health disorders. It aims to accelerate the development of new medicines across all its companies to receive clinically meaningful, and sustained behavioral change in mental health of patients. The company focuses on disease-modifying mental health treatments by researching both psychedelic and non-psychedelic compounds. ALS is headquartered in Berlin, Germany.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$0.3 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 34.8% over FY2022. The operating loss of the company was US$126.4 million in FY2023, compared to an operating loss of US$143.3 million in FY2022. The net loss of the company was US$40.2 million in FY2023, compared to a net loss of US$152.4 million in FY2022.
For a complete picture of RL-007’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.