The revenue for Zipalertinib is expected to reach an annual total of $47 mn by 2037 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Zipalertinib Overview
zipalertinib is under development for the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer. The drug candidate acts by targeting epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) with Exon 20 insertions. It is administered as a tablet through oral route.
Otsuka Overview
Otsuka is a holding company, which operates various businesses such as pharmaceuticals, nutraceuticals, consumer products, and other businesses through its subsidiaries. It focuses on the research and development, manufacture, and sale of medicines for the treatment of cancer, cardiovascular diseases, central nervous system disorders, ophthalmic diseases, gastrointestinal and respiratory diseases, infectious diseases, dermatological conditions, and allergies. The company’s product portfolio includes pharmaceutical products, cosmedics, functional foods and beverages, fine chemicals, electronic equipment, functional chemicals, medical devices, and OTC products. The company markets its products across North America, Europe, and Asia. Otsuka is headquartered in Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan.
The company reported revenues of (Yen) JPY2,018,568 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 16.1% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company’s operating margin was 6.9%, compared to an operating margin of 8.8% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 6%, compared to a net margin of 7.7% in FY2022. The company reported revenues of JPY589,412 million for the second quarter ended June 2024, an increase of 13.5% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Zipalertinib’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.