WASHINGTON — Republican presidential candidates are polishing off their best barbs and attack lines for each other, President Biden and even elephant-in-the-room Donald Trump during their first debate this week. But one increasingly popular candidate isn’t likely to catch any flak.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a longtime face of the anti-vaccine movement, has seen a swell of popularity among conservatives and particularly Covid-19 conspiracy theorists. While he’s still a long shot candidate, especially running as a Democrat, Kennedy’s climb in the polls and his favorability with voters — he has the broadest public approval, according to a recent Harvard CAPS-Harris poll — hasn’t gone unnoticed.
Republican presidential candidates Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Trump have praised him. DeSantis has gone as far as saying he would appoint Kennedy to a top position to “sic” him on federal health agencies for the Covid-19 response. Ramaswamy told a radio show that he’s spoken with Kennedy “several times over the course of the campaign.”
Plenty of Republican strategists say Kennedy is simply a handy, if unwilling, accomplice to bring down Biden.
“Promoting Kennedy is under the guise of anything that’s bad for Biden is good for Republicans,” said Brian Seitchik, a GOP strategist with RDP Strategies.
However that tactic has earned mounting frustration from other Republican strategists who privately vented to STAT that raising Kennedy’s profile was stoking conspiracy-laden wings of the party. They declined to speak on the record about their concerns, but at least one establishment Republican has aired them publicly in recent weeks.
“This guy’s a nut,” prominent GOP strategist Karl Rove said during a recent Fox News appearance. “It is not just health care that Robert Kennedy is a conspiracy buff on. He’s got lots of conspiracies.”
Kennedy’s most well-known position is that vaccines are unsafe. Over the years he has falsely claimed vaccines cause autism, falsely declared the coronavirus shot is the world’s deadliest vaccine, and misleadingly questioned ingredients’ safety. However he has also touted unproven theories that school shootings are fueled by rising antidepressant use and that gender dysphoria and sexuality are linked to environmental chemical exposure. There is no scientific evidence of either.
“The fact that he supports various conspiracies, I don’t think is any real reflection on the Republican Party,” Seitchik said. “I really don’t think it’s about what he believes. It’s … [a] protest vote against Joe Biden.”
Others aren’t convinced by that argument. Kennedy is the only current candidate with more support among his opposition — he’s favorable to 55% of Republicans, compared with just 28% of his own party. He’s also attracted a third of independent voters’ approval, said Robert Blendon, a Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health professor who tracks voters’ sentiment on health care and other policies.
Kennedy, for his part, has insisted he’s not in this race to help the Republican Party but to “reclaim” the Democratic party.
Yet it seems clear that even if Republicans position Kennedy as a distracting counterforce to Biden, the anti-establishment candidates and voters do see him as a kindred spirit in national disillusionment with the federal government and specifically the medical establishment, where national trust is at an all-time low.
“He has a hostility towards experts, towards scientists, people in federal government agencies, and that captures a share of where Republicans are,” said Blendon. “They relate to that.”
That aligns Kennedy particularly well with Ramaswamy, who has also preached a kind of scientific freedom, including a plan to ‘gut’ the FDA.
Like the Democratic dark horse, the former biotech executive has also climbed in the polls while DeSantis drops. He’s gone so far as suggesting he could choose Kennedy as a running mate.
“I think we live in a moment where we could unite this country,” Ramaswamy said in May.
While neither Kennedy nor Ramaswamy is leading their party’s race right now, there is a growing American appetite for anyone who isn’t Biden or Trump, positioning them for potential influence down the line as endorsers or agitators. Two-thirds of voters said they would back a moderate independent over the leading Republican and Democrat, according to the Harvard CAPS-Harris survey. There haven’t been levels like that since Ross Perot’s third-party runs, said Blendon.
“Both will end the forever wars, restore the dwindling middle class, prioritize medical freedom, and rediscover our collective nationalistic spirit,” a Cleveland resident wrote to the local paper in June. “As a Kennedy Democrat, I jointly endorse RFK Jr. and Vivek Ramaswamy for the Democratic and Republican nominations, respectively.”
What else to expect on Wednesday
The debate interviewers aren’t likely to ask directly about RFK Jr. during Wednesday’s debate in Milwaukee. But there are a few health care topics likely to come up.
The candidates themselves aren’t eager to discuss abortion, particularly as voters continue to rebuff state referendums and restrictions. But interviewers are likely to push for clarifications on how far candidates think bans should go, as many have fallen back on whether there could be national “consensus” on a ban and how early the procedure should be barred.
For instance former governors Nikki Haley (South Carolina) and Asa Hutchinson (Arkansas), and current North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum all endorse a 15-week ban, but Burgum opposed a national law while Hutchinson calls it unlikely. Others, including former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, say they would only back a national ban if there is consensus among states.
DeSantis and Ramaswamy support a ban past six weeks, but the Florida governor, who signed such a restriction this year, has waffled on whether it should be extended nationally. Ramaswamy has said it is staunchly a state issue.
DeSantis is likely to bring up his track record on bucking federal Covid-19 guidance for vaccines and masking. Hutchinson could also point to his efforts as Arkansas governor to narrow vaccine requirements, but he’s also a notable Republican leader to defend their safety. Christie has similarly supported the shots — touting them as akin to “putting on a safety belt” and participating in public messaging — but also criticized the federal approach.
“The vaccines do work,” he said in 2021. “What [Republicans] don’t want is to be indoctrinated.”