The revenue for Rilvegostomig is expected to reach an annual total of $103 mn by 2039 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Rilvegostomig Overview
Rilvegostomig (AZD-2936) is under development for the treatment of solid tumors, advanced or metastatic squamous or metastatic non-squamous non-small cell lung carcinoma, squamous or non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer, head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, oral cavity (mouth) cancer, oropharyngeal cancer, hepatocellular carcinoma, hypopharyngeal cancer, laryngeal cancer and locally advanced unresectable or metastatic gastric or gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma, cholangiocarcinoma (biliary tract cancer), bladder cancer and gallbladder cancer. It is administered through intravenous route. The therapeutic candidate is a bi-specific monoclonal antibody acts by targeting T cell immunoreceptor with Ig and ITIM domains (TIGIT) and programmed cell death protein 1 (PD1). It is derived from COM902 (anti-TIGIT antibody).
AstraZeneca Overview
AstraZeneca is a biopharmaceutical company, which is focused on discovery, production and commercialization of a range of prescription drugs. It develops products related to therapy areas such as respiratory, cardiovascular, renal and metabolic diseases, cancer, autoimmune, infection and neurological diseases. The company’s product portfolio includes biologics, prescription pharmaceuticals and vaccines. AstraZeneca sells its products through wholly-owned local marketing companies, distributors and local representative offices. The company markets its products to primary care and specialty care physicians. The company operates in Europe, the Americas, Asia, Africa and Australasia. AstraZeneca is headquartered in Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, the UK.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$45,811 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 3.3% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company’s operating margin was 17.9%, compared to an operating margin of 8.5% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 13%, compared to a net margin of 7.4% in FY2022. The company reported revenues of US$12,679 million for the first quarter ended March 2024, an increase of 5.4% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Rilvegostomig’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.