The revenue for CTX-471 is expected to reach an annual total of $104 mn by 2040 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
CTX-471 Overview
CTX-471 is under development for the treatment of metastatic solid tumors including mucosal melanoma, metastatic melanoma, mesothelioma, non-small cell lung cancer, head and neck cancer and small-cell lung cancer. CTX-471 acts by targeting TNF superfamily and its ligands. It is administered by intravenous route. The drug candidate is developed based on StitchMabs and Sympleitope technologies. It acts by targeting CD137.
Compass Pathways Overview
Compass Pathways is a biotechnology company that carries out the development of mental health treatments. The company provides the development of COMP360 psilocybin treatment, a novel approach to mental health care that combines a proprietary psilocybin formulation with psychological support. Compass Pathways products are designed for use in the healthcare industry for the treatment of mental health conditions. It collaborates with research institutions and partners. Compass Pathways is headquartered in Altrincham, Cheshire, the UK.
The operating loss of the company was US$136.9 million in FY2023, compared to an operating loss of US$110.4 million in FY2022. The net loss of the company was US$118.5 million in FY2023, compared to a net loss of US$91.5 million in FY2022.
For a complete picture of CTX-471’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.