The revenue for Mebufotenin is expected to reach an annual total of $151 mn by 2036 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Mebufotenin Overview
Mebufotenin (GH-001) is under development for the treatment of treatment-resistant depression, major depressive disorder, bipolar II disorder, post partum depression and other psychiatric diseases. The drug candidate is a 5-methoxy-dimethyltryptamine (5-MEO-DMT). The drug candidate is a drug-device combination. It is administered through the inhalational route. It acts by targeting serotonin 5 HT1A and 5HT2A.
GH Research Overview
GH Research biopharmaceutical company developing novel therapies for psychiatric and neurological disorders. The company has desigend its proprietary inhalable 5-MeO-DMT for depression. GH Research is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
The operating loss of the company was US$30.6 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$15.1 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was US$22.5 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$9.2 million in FY2021.
For a complete picture of Mebufotenin’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.