The revenue for Pelabresib is expected to reach an annual total of $423 mn by 2034 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Pelabresib Overview
Pelabresib (CPI-0610) is under development for the treatment of acute myelocytic leukemia (AML, Acute Myeloblastic Leukemia), myelodysplastic syndrome or myelodysplastic/myeloproliferative neoplasms myelofibrosis, primary myelofibrosis, post-polycythemia vera myelofibrosis and post-essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis. The drug candidate is administered orally and is a new molecular entity. It acts by targeting bromodomain and extra-terminal (BET) proteins (BRD2, BRD3, BRD4, and BRDT). It was also under development for the treatment of non-Hodgkin lymphomas including diffuse large cell B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), follicular lymphoma, Hodgkin lymphoma, multiple myeloma.
MorphoSys Overview
MorphoSys is commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company that develop monoclonal antibodies for therapeutic and research applications, with focused on the treatment of cancer and autoimmune diseases. The company’s product pipeline includes tafasitamab, pelabresib, cpi-0209, gantenerumab, otilimab, ianalumab, abelacimab, felzartamab, setrusumab, NOV-8, NOV-14 and MOR210. Its Tafasitamab is a humanized Fc-modified cytolytic CD19 targeting monoclonal antibody directed against CD19 in clinical development for the treatment of B cell malignancies. The company provides clinical trials for cancer and inflammatory disorders. MorphoSys also conducts research and development activities with pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. The company owns a regional licensing agreement to develop and commercialize products. It operates in the US. MorphoSys is headquartered in Planegg, Bayern, Germany.
The company reported revenues of (Euro) EUR278.3 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 54.9% over FY2021. The operating loss of the company was EUR224.3 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of EUR506.2 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was EUR151.1 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of EUR514.5 million in FY2021. The company reported revenues of EUR62.3 million for the first quarter ended March 2023, a decrease of 23.6% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Pelabresib’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.