The revenue for Vandefitemcel is expected to reach an annual total of $8 mn by 2035 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Vandefitemcel Overview
SB-623 (vandefitemcel) is under development for the treatment of chronic motor deficit from ischemic stroke and traumatic brain injury, Parkinson’s disease (PD), dry age related macular degeneration, retinitis pigmentosa, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer’s disease and hemorrhagic stroke. It is administered through parenteral and intracerebral route as an implant. SB-623 is a stem cell therapy product produced by gene transfer of Notch-1 into MSCs isolated from bone marrow fluid obtained from healthy adult donors. The drug candidate is based on regenerative technology. It was also under development for the treatment for dementia.
SanBio Overview
SanBio deal with the research, development, manufacture and distribution of regenerative cell medicines. The company is focusing on developing and investigating SB623, a proprietary cell-based product for the treatment of chronic traumatic brain injury, ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke; dry-age-related macular degeneration; retinitis pigmentosa; spinal cord injury; Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s diseases. It is also developing SB618 for peripheral nerve damage; SB308 against muscle dystrophy; MSC1 for the treatment of cancer; and MSC2 targeting inflammatory diseases. The company has an operational presence in California, the US; and Singapore. SanBio is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
The operating loss of the company was JPY7,899.3 million in FY2023, compared to an operating loss of JPY6,601.5 million in FY2022. The net loss of the company was JPY5,559.6 million in FY2023, compared to a net loss of JPY4,677.9 million in FY2022.
For a complete picture of Vandefitemcel’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.