The revenue for Sepetaprost is expected to reach an annual total of $30 mn by 2034 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Sepetaprost Overview
Sepetaprost (DE-126) is under development for the treatment of ocular hypertension (OHT) and open-angle glaucoma (OAG). The drug candidate is administered as eye drops. It is a prostaglandin analogue. It targets prostaglandin receptors FP2 and EP3.
Santen Pharmaceutical Overview
Santen Pharmaceutical (Santen) focuses on the research, development, manufacturing and marketing of pharmaceutical products and medical devices. Its product portfolio includes prescription ophthalmic products for glaucoma, bacterial conjunctivitis, dry eye, inflammation, cataract, muscae volitantes, diabetic retinopathy, retinal detachment, hyposphagma, myopia, retinal detachment, amblyopia, astigmatism, strabismus, hordeolum, VDT syndrome, and others; over-the-counter products ophthalmic products; anti-allergy ophthalmic products; and medical devices such as intraocular lenses (IOLs) and other ophthalmic products. Santen operates through its group companies located in Asia, Europe and the US. It operates production facilities in Noto, and Shiga, Japan; and Suzhou, China. Santen is headquartered in Osaka-Shi, Osaka, Japan.
The company reported revenues of (Yen) JPY279,037 million for the fiscal year ended March 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 4.8% over FY2022. The operating loss of the company was JPY3,388 million in FY2023, compared to an operating profit of JPY37,367 million in FY2022. The net loss of the company was JPY14,948 million in FY2023, compared to a net profit of JPY27,218 million in FY2022. The company reported revenues of JPY77,027 million for the third quarter ended December 2023, an increase of 4.9% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Sepetaprost’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.