The revenue for Nirogacestat hydrobromide is expected to reach an annual total of $519 mn by 2033 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Nirogacestat hydrobromide Overview
Nirogacestat hydrobromide (PF-03084014-04) is under development for the treatment of pediatric and adult desmoid tumors or aggressive fibromatosis, relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma, ovarian granulosa tumors and soft tissue sarcoma. The therapeutic candidate is administered through oral route in the form of tablet. It acts by targeting selective gamma-secretase (GS). It was under development for the treatment of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, triple negative breast cancer (TNBC), Alzheimer’s disease, AIDS-associated Kaposi sarcoma, T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia and lymphoblastic lymphoma.
It was also under development for as an adjuvant to docetaxel in castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC).
SpringWorks Therapeutics Overview
SpringWorks Therapeutics is a drug development company that develops therapeutic medicines for various diseases. The company’s pipeline products include Nirogacestat, MEK ½ Inhibitor, Senicapoc and FAAH Inhibitor. Its Nirogacestat is a gamma-secretase inhibitor used for the treatment of Desmoid tumors. SpringWorks Therapeutics’ Senicapoc is a Gardos channel blocker used for the treatment of hereditary xerocytosis. The company’s FAAH Inhibitor is used for the treatment of post-traumatic stress disorder. It partners with biopharmaceutical companies, scientists, patient groups and philanthropists. SpringWorks Therapeutics is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, the US.
The operating loss of the company was US$280.7 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$173.5 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was US$277.4 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$173.9 million in FY2021.
For a complete picture of Nirogacestat hydrobromide’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.