The revenue for TN-201 is expected to reach an annual total of $37 mn by 2038 in the US based off GlobalDatas Expiry Model. The drugs revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drugs phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
TN-201 Overview
TN-201 is under development for the treatment of cardiomyopathy. It comprises of adeno-associated virus serotype 9 (AAV9) vectors to deliver cardiac myosin-binding protein-C gene (MYBPC3). It is developed based on Gene Therapy platform. It is administered through intravenous route.
Tenaya Therapeutics Overview
Tenaya Therapeutics is a biopharmaceutical company that develops novel therapies to treat heart diseases. It utilizes its cellular regeneration, gene therapy, and precision medicine product platforms for drug development. Its product pipeline includes TN-201 to treat hypertrophic cardiomyopathy; TN-401 for treatment of cardiomyopathy; TN-301 targeting diastolic heart failure and dilated cardiomyopathy; and DWORF to treat congestive heart failure. Tenaya Therapeutics develops other drug candidates to treat dilated cardiomyopathy, heart failure, heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFrEF), hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, and genetic and idiopathic cardiomyopathies. The company works in collaboration with Gladstone Institutes and University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center. Tenaya Therapeutics is headquartered in South San Francisco, California, the US.
The operating loss of the company was US$131.2 million in FY2023, compared to an operating loss of US$125.6 million in FY2022. The net loss of the company was US$124.1 million in FY2023, compared to a net loss of US$123.7 million in FY2022.
For a complete picture of TN-201s valuation, buy the drugs risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.