The revenue for VK-2735 is expected to reach an annual total of $15 mn by 2037 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
VK-2735 Overview
VK-2735 is under development for the treatment of obesity and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). They act by targeting the incretin hormones-glucagon like peptide1 receptor (GLP-1R) and glucose dependent insulinotropic polypeptide/Gastric inhibitory polypeptide receptor (GIP-R). It is administered through subcutaneous route and oral route in the form of tablet.
Viking Therapeutics Overview
Viking Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that develops novel therapies for patients suffering from metabolic and endocrine disorders. Its pipeline products include VK2809, VK2735, VK0612, VK0214, VK5211 and others. The company’s product VK0214 treats orphan indication, a rare X-linked inherited neurological disorder; VK2809 treats orally available tissue and receptor-subtype selective agonist of the thyroid beta receptor for the treatment of hypercholesterolemia and fatty liver disease and VK0612 an inhibitor of fructose -1,6-biphosphatase for type 2 diabetes. Viking Therapeutics is headquartered in San Diego, California, the US.
The operating loss of the company was US$70.4 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$55.7 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was US$68.9 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$55 million in FY2021.
For a complete picture of VK-2735’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.