The revenue for WVEN-531 is expected to reach an annual total of $37 mn by 2034 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
WVEN-531 Overview
WVEN-531 is under development for the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy. The drug candidate is developed based on exon skipping technology which skips exon 53 in the dystrophin gene. It is developed based on chemistry platform, which utilizes phosphorothioate (PS) modification of nucleic acid therapeutics. It is administered through intravenous route. It is being developed based on PRISM platform.
Wave Life Sciences Overview
Wave Life Sciences discovers, develops, and commercializes medicines for genetic diseases. The company’s pipeline consists of an mRNA transcript candidate: WVE-120101 and WVE-120102 for Huntington’s disease; ATXN3 gene candidate for Spinocerebellar ataxia 3; C9orf72 gene candidate for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and frontotemporal dementia (FTD); USH2A and RhoP23H candidate for retinal diseases; and multiple candidates for other central nervous system (CNS) disorders, and hepatic diseases. The company employs its proprietary chemistry platform to design, optimize and manufacture stereopure oligonucleotides with improved safety, tolerability and efficacy compared to that of stereorandom oligonucleotides. Wave Life Sciences is jointly advancing its CNS pipeline candidates in collaboration with Takeda. It has operations in Singapore, the US, Japan, the UK, and Ireland. Wave Life Sciences is headquartered in Singapore city, Singapore.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$3.7 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), a decrease of 91.1% over FY2021. The operating loss of the company was US$162.7 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$127 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was US$161.8 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$122.3 million in FY2021. The company reported revenues of US$12.9 million for the first quarter ended March 2023, compared to a revenue of US$1.2 million the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of WVEN-531’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.