The revenue for (Trospium chloride + Xanomeline) is expected to reach an annual total of $761 mn by 2033 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
(Trospium chloride + Xanomeline) Overview
Xanomeline in combination with trospium chloride is under development for the treatment of psychosis, negative and cognitive symptoms associated with dementia, dementia-related psychosis, schizophrenia as an adjunctive treatment for psychosis associated with Alzheimer’s disease. It is administered orally as a capsule. The drug candidate act by targeting muscarinic acetyl choline receptors. It was also under development for the treatment of bipolar disorder and pain.
Zai Lab Overview
Zai Lab biopharmaceutical company that carries out drug development, discovery and commercializing therapies. The company product pipeline includes ZEJULA (niraparib), qinlock (ripretinib) NUZYRA (omadacycline) and optune (tumor treating fields). It includes discovering, developing and commercializing products that address medical conditions. Zai Lab therapeutic areas includes oncology, autoimmune disorders, infectious diseases and neuroscience. The company market its products to the United States, Europe, Canada, Australia, Greater China and certain other countries and regions. Zai Lab is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$266.7 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 24% over FY2022. The operating loss of the company was US$366.6 million in FY2023, compared to an operating loss of US$404.4 million in FY2022. The net loss of the company was US$334.6 million in FY2023, compared to a net loss of US$443.3 million in FY2022.
For a complete picture of (Trospium chloride + Xanomeline)’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.